人口学家：中国别无选择，只有大规模引进移民才能解决人口危机

8月15号，美国人口学家达德利·波士顿 (Dudley L. Poston Jr.) 在学术媒体《对话》 (The Conversation) 上发文，指出中国当局准备延迟退休的政策并无效果，只有大规模吸引外国移民才能解决这一问题。

波士顿首先表示，中国面临严峻的人口问题。目前，中国的生育率远低于维持人口所需的水平，而每年的死亡人数已经超过出生人数，这将导致中国未来人口将逐渐减少，并且老年人口的比例将大幅增加。作者引用联合国的数据，到2100年，中国将有超过一半的人口将年龄超过60岁，这将给劳动力市场和经济带来巨大压力。而劳动力的减少以及赡养人口的增加将使中国面临严重的社会和经济挑战。

然而，他认为尽管中国政府计划在未来五年内逐步提高法定退休年龄，以缓解养老金压力，但这并不能从根本上解决中国的人口问题。他表示，此举只是一个暂时的解决方案，可以在短期内缓解养老金的压力，但是这一措施无法减缓人口下降的速度，也不能显著改善劳动年龄人口与老年人口的比例。文章强调，单靠延迟退休不能解决中国的人口结构变化带来的长期问题。

因此，他指出移民才是解决人口危机的重要办法。他表示，许多生育率低的国家都已经依赖国际移民来补充劳动力，而中国的外国出生人口比例极低，只有0.1%。相比之下，美国和德国的外国出生人口比例分别为14%和18%。引入更多的国际移民可以为中国提供年轻劳动力，同时也可能带来更高的出生率，从而缓解人口减少的压力。

不过，文章也指出，中国在积极推行移民政策方面面临着巨大的挑战。中国历史上对移民的经验不足，加上共产党领导人对“种族纯洁性的固执信念”，使得这一政策的实施难度颇大。此外，公众对大规模移民可能会产生抵触情绪，特别是年轻工人，他们可能会因为移民的涌入而失去工作机会。

然而，作者认为，从长远来看，中国别无选择，只能实施积极的移民政策。如果中国不采取措施引入年轻的劳动移民，未来中国将面临更加严峻的老龄化和人口萎缩问题，到下个世纪初，中国可能只剩下当前一半的人口，并成为世界上人口最为老化的国家之一。

以下是英语原文：

Raising the retirement age won’t defuse China’s demographic time bomb – but mass immigration might

Chinese workers may soon have to work just a little bit longer.

In late July 2024, China’s ruling Communist Party adopted a resolution that would see the country’s statutory retirement age gradually rise over the next five years.

The final retirement age has not been specified, but an earlier official report suggests it is likely to end up at around 65 years old.

This would put the country more in line with other large economies, including the U.S. At present, China has one of the lowest retirement ages in the world, at 60 for men, and 55 for women in white-collar jobs or 50 if they are in blue-collar jobs.

Party leaders have mulled reforming China’s retirement plan for several years. But the apparent urgency now reflects growing concern over the impact that a shrinking – and aging – population will have on the country’s dwindling pension pot.

Funds set aside to cover retirement costs in China look set to be completely used up by 2035, the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences projected just a few years ago.

Raising the retirement age will no doubt stretch funds for a few extra years.

But it will not be a permanent fix – and it does nothing to address the serious underlying demographic problems that China faces.

I have studied China’s population for over 40 years; I believe the demographic issue confronting China now represents one of the most serious problems facing the country in centuries.

With a fertility rate of 1.1 children per woman – way below the 2.1 births per woman needed to maintain a native population – and more deaths each year than births, China’s future is one of declining population, with an enormous increase in the numbers of elderly. Compounding the problem, China has long been hostile to the idea of supplementing its native population through immigration; just 0.1% of its population is foreign-born – that’s the smallest percentage of any major country in the world.

Demographers know about shrinkage
For most of its life span, Communist China has seen population growth.

In 1950, several months after the founding of the People’s Republic of China, the country’s population numbered 539 million. It then rose every year for nearly 70 years, reaching 1.43 billion in 2021.

But at that point it peaked. In the subsequent years, China has had more deaths than births and has lost population. Furthermore, United Nations population projections, suggest that if current trends continue China’s population will fall below 1 billion in 2070, below 800 million in 2086 and down to 633 million by 2100.

That represents a loss of more than half its current population in around 75 years. A population decline that drastic would wreak havoc on its labor force, causing untold economic problems.

Older and smaller
But it isn’t simply about the drop in total number. Potentially more concerning is the shift in how the population is made up.

According to U.N. figures, in 2023 just under 20% of China’s population was in the current retirement bracket of 60 and over. But by 2100, this is projected to increase to an astounding high of over 52%.

The data also shows that at present, around 12% of China’s population are young workers, aged 20 to 29, while 46% are older employees aged 30 to 59. But by 2100, this labor force is projected to drop dramatically to just over 7% for young workers and around 29% for 30- to 59-year-olds.

Similarly, the numbers of children and young adults in China, those aged 19 and under, will drop from 21% in 2023 to 11% in 2100.

In short, the population projections for China do not bode well for the future of the country. There will be fewer workers to support a growing number of, mainly elderly, dependents.

But China’s plan to increase the retirement age will have only a minor impact on alleviating the problems associated with these trends. Raising the retirement age will not help China slow the population decline, and it will have only a marginal effect on the ratio between working adults and post-working age adults.

The need for migration
There is, however, something that can mitigate this trend: immigration.

Many of the major countries of the world with very low fertility rates rely on international migration to provide young workers – and these young immigrants also have more babies than the local people. Compare, for instance, China’s low rate of 0.1% foreign-born with the almost 14% foreign-born in the U.S. and 18% in Germany. Even the East Asian nations of Japan and South Korea have higher foreign-born percentages than China, at 2% and 3.7%, respectively.

Several attempts have been made by the Chinese government to implement policies to increase the birth rate, but they have not worked. In fact, demographers tend to agree that such “pronatalist” policies tend not to be effective.

But it will not be easy to introduce and implement an active immigration policy in China, a country with little experience with immigration and a seemingly deep-rooted belief in racial purity shared by many leaders in the Communist Party.

There may well be resistance to immigration from the wider Chinese population. Young Chinese workers would be the ones most affected by an increase of immigrants. In the early years of any policy that encourages mass immigration, some Chinese would lose their jobs and need to find employment elsewhere. This would especially be the situation for young workers.

But in general, immigrants seek employment in jobs that the local population does not prefer – sometimes referred to as “three Ds jobs,” or those that are dirty, dangerous and demeaning. This has been the case in most European countries and in the U.S.

And the alternative will be more painful for China in the long run. If an active immigration policy is not implemented, by the beginning of the next century, China will be half as large as it is today and will be one of the oldest countries – if not the oldest country – in the world.

Beijing is already facing the strain of these trends, hence the need for pension reforms. But without the influx of a young immigrant workforce, the problems China faces will be far worse.



以下是原文翻译：
提高退休年龄并不能消除中国的人口定时炸弹，可能会大规模移民

中国工人可能很快不得不再工作一会儿。

2024 年 7 月下旬，中国执政的共产党通过了一项决议，将在未来五年内逐步提高该国的法定退休年龄。

最终的退休年龄尚未具体确定，但早些时候的官方报告显示，最终可能会在65岁左右结束。

这将使该国与包括美国在内的其他大型经济体更加一致。目前，中国是世界上退休年龄最低的国家之一，男性退休年龄为60岁，白领女性为55岁，蓝领工作为50岁。

几年来，中共领导人一直在酝酿改革中国的退休计划。但现在这种明显的紧迫性反映了人们越来越担心人口萎缩和老龄化将对该国日益减少的养老金池产生的影响。

中国社会科学院几年前预测，到2035年，中国为支付退休费用而预留的资金将完全耗尽。

毫无疑问，提高退休年龄将使资金多花几年时间。

但这不会是一个永久的解决办法，也无助于解决中国面临的严重的潜在人口问题。

我研究中国人口已有40多年了;我认为，中国现在面临的人口问题是几个世纪以来中国面临的最严重的问题之一。

中国的生育率为每名妇女生育1.1个孩子，远低于维持本国人口所需的每名妇女生育2.1个孩子的水平，而且每年的死亡人数都超过了出生人数，中国的未来将是人口下降、老年人口数量大幅增加的未来。使问题更加复杂的是，中国长期以来一直反对通过移民来补充本国人口的想法;只有0.1%的人口是在外国出生的，这是世界上所有主要国家中最小的比例。

人口统计学家了解收缩
在其生命的大部分时间里，共产主义中国的人口都在增长。

1950年，中华人民共和国成立几个月后，中国人口达到5.39亿。然后，在近70年的时间里，它每年都在上升，到2021年达到14.3亿。



但在那一刻，它达到了顶峰。在随后的几年里，中国的死亡人数超过了出生人数，并且人口减少了。此外，联合国人口预测表明，如果目前的趋势继续下去，中国人口将在2070年降至10亿以下，2086年将降至8亿以下，到2100年将降至6.33亿。

这意味着在大约75年的时间里，其现有人口损失了一半以上。如此急剧的人口下降将对其劳动力造成严重破坏，造成难以言喻的经济问题。

年长且更小
但这不仅仅是关于总数的下降。可能更令人担忧的是人口构成方式的转变。



根据联合国的数据，到2023年，中国60岁及以上的退休人口占总人口的不到20%。但到 2100 年，这一数字预计将增加到超过 52% 的惊人高位。

数据还显示，目前，中国人口中约有12%是20至29岁的年轻劳动者，而46%是30至59岁的老年劳动者。但到2100年，预计这一劳动力将急剧下降，年轻工人的比例将略高于7%，30至59岁的劳动力将降至29%左右。

同样，中国19岁及以下的儿童和年轻人数量将从2023年的21%下降到2100年的11%。

简而言之，对中国的人口预测对该国的未来来说并不是一个好兆头。抚养越来越多的人（主要是老年人）的受抚养人将减少工人。

但中国提高退休年龄的计划对缓解与这些趋势相关的问题影响不大。提高退休年龄无助于减缓中国人口下降，而且对在职成年人和后工作年龄成年人的比例只会产生边际影响。

迁移的必要性
然而，有一些东西可以缓解这种趋势：移民。

世界上许多生育率非常低的主要国家依靠国际移民来提供年轻劳动力，而这些年轻移民的婴儿也比当地人多。例如，相比之下，中国的外国出生率为0.1%，而美国和德国分别有近14%和18%的外国出生率。即使是日本和韩国等东亚国家，外国出生的比例也高于中国，分别为2%和3.7%。

中国政府曾多次尝试实施提高出生率的政策，但都没有奏效。事实上，人口统计学家倾向于同意，这种“生育主义”政策往往没有效果。

但是，在中国引入和实施积极的移民政策并不容易，因为中国在移民方面几乎没有经验，而且中国共产党的许多领导人似乎都对种族纯洁有着根深蒂固的信念。

很可能会有来自更广泛的中国人口对移民的抵制。年轻的中国工人将是受移民增加影响最大的人。在任何鼓励大规模移民的政策的早期，一些中国人都会失去工作，需要在其他地方找到工作。对于年轻工人来说，情况尤其如此。

但总的来说，移民寻求当地居民不喜欢的工作——有时被称为“三D工作”，或者那些肮脏、危险和有辱人格的工作。大多数欧洲国家和美国都是这种情况。

从长远来看，另一种选择对中国来说将更加痛苦。如果不实施积极的移民政策，到下个世纪初，中国的面积将只有现在的一半，并将成为世界上最古老的国家之一——如果不是最古老的国家的话。

北京已经面临这些趋势的压力，因此需要进行养老金改革。但是，如果没有年轻移民劳动力的涌入，中国面临的问题将更加严重。